Are Mortgage Rates Really Going Up?
Dave Lacusta • March 3, 2021
Now, despite the Bank of Canada committing to keeping interest rates low into 2023, if you’ve been listening to the media in the last couple of weeks, you may have heard that interest rates are currently on the rise. But if the government is working to keep rates low, it doesn’t make sense for them to be going up? Well, the key here is to compare apples to apples. 
 
 The Bank of Canada controls the overnight rate target, impacting the prime rate, which impacts variable-rate mortgages. In contrast, fixed-rate mortgages get their cue from the bond market. 
 
 So while variable rates haven’t moved, the bond market has seen a lot of action, which has caused an increase in fixed-rate mortgages. Since February 5th, Canadian bond yields have surged by almost 0.60%, bringing us to record 12-month highs. In the last 2 weeks alone, we’ve seen rate increases of 0.10% to 0.30% on certain fixed mortgage terms. 
 
 So what does this mean for you? 
 
 Firstly, make sure you have perspective. There isn’t an emergency here, no need to act rashly. While we’ve seen an increase in fixed-rate mortgages by up to 0.30%, we’re still in a very low rate environment. Two years ago, fixed rates were over 3%, while you can still find terms under 2% today. That’s a huge drop. 
 
 Just because fixed-rate mortgages have gone up doesn’t mean you’ll qualify for any less of a mortgage. As the government uses a qualifying rate to stress test your mortgage, the actual contract rate isn’t used to qualify your mortgage. 
 
 So, if you’re looking to buy a property in the next little while, interest rates are still very low. It’s a great time to get a rate hold and pre-approval. Let’s talk! At the same time, if your existing mortgage is up for renewal soon or you’d like to refinance to access some equity, interest rates are still very low, historically speaking, we should evaluate all your options. Again, let’s talk! 
 
 Regardless of your situation, if you would like a little more clarity on how increasing rates impact you, or if you’d like to discuss mortgage financing, please reach out and contact me anytime. I would love to work with you!
 
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Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.                                                                  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                   Media Relations                                                                               Ottawa, Ontario                                                                  October 29, 2025                                                                                     The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.                                                                                     With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.                                                                                     While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.                                                                                     In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.                                                                                     Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.                                                                                     Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.                                                                                     The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.                                                                                     CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.                                                                                     With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. 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Information note                                                      The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.                                                                                     Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report
 

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